Trump needs China’s help fixing the global oil crisis. It’s unlikely to play along
Strait of Hormuz as a Key Negotiation Point
As the global oil crisis intensifies, President Donald Trump has introduced a novel demand during upcoming US-China talks in Beijing: ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open. This request comes amid escalating tensions over Iran’s blockade of the vital waterway, which has disrupted roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, causing price surges and economic anxieties that might destabilize global markets.
Iran’s closure of the channel has triggered fears of energy shortages, with some analysts warning of a historic energy crisis. Trump, facing domestic criticism over rising fuel costs, is now urging international allies, including France, Japan, and Britain, to collaborate in securing the strait. His strategy hinges on pressuring China, a major buyer of Iranian oil, to support this effort.
“It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there,” Trump told the Financial Times. “I think China should help too.”
China’s Strategic Position and Diversification
China’s ability to withstand prolonged energy disruptions gives it less reason to comply with Trump’s demands. Over recent years, Beijing has fortified its energy security by stockpiling crude oil, expanding import sources, and investing heavily in renewable energy and electric vehicles. These measures have shielded the nation from the full brunt of supply shocks, allowing it flexibility in negotiations.
Analysts suggest China may adopt a wait-and-see approach. “Given its strategic stability, Beijing would have room to maneuver,” noted Bert Hofman, a professor at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore. Meanwhile, Iran has reportedly considered permitting oil shipments if transactions are conducted in Chinese yuan, adding another layer of complexity to the geopolitical dynamics.
Domestic and International Reactions
Within China, the ongoing conflict has sparked a mix of reactions. While state media called for US-China cooperation, the nationalist Global Times criticized Trump’s push to send warships to the strait. “Is this really about ‘sharing responsibility’ – or is it about sharing the risk of a war that Washington started and can’t finish?” questioned an unnamed op-ed author.
Despite this, Chinese officials have condemned Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure but also expressed concerns about Iranian strikes against Saudi Arabia. This nuanced stance highlights Beijing’s balancing act in the crisis. Meanwhile, US economic officials have held discussions in Paris with their Chinese counterparts, focusing on trade agreements for agriculture and critical minerals.
Trump’s threat to delay his summit with Xi Jinping unless China agrees to assist reflects his diminished leverage after a Supreme Court ruling that questioned his authority to impose unilateral tariffs. His administration now relies on alternative tactics to exert pressure, such as urging NATO allies to deploy warships, though Japan and Australia have so far resisted.
“The US needs China more than China needs the US,” remarked Henry Huiyao Wang, head of the Center for China and Globalization. As the conflict in the Persian Gulf continues, Trump’s diplomatic maneuvering faces challenges from both internal and external forces, testing the resilience of his global alliances.
In a Monday press briefing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian emphasized the importance of the upcoming meeting, stating, “Head-of-state diplomacy plays an indispensable role in providing strategic guidance to China-US relations. The two sides remain in communication regarding President Trump’s visit to China.”
