Even if Iran war ends now, farmers’ costs will have to be passed on
Ali Capper, a fruit grower, described the outbreak of conflict in Iran as a shock that left her feeling “quite sick” about its potential effects on the UK farming industry. With the agricultural sector in the midst of its busiest planting season, many are facing rapidly climbing expenses, driven by the war’s influence on fuel and fertilizer prices. A proposed two-week ceasefire, aimed at easing tensions, arrives too late to reverse the damage, according to Ali, who advocates for British apple and pear producers. “Even if the war concludes tomorrow, the financial burden has already settled into our costs,” she stated.
Analysts at The Andersons Centre have revealed that farm operational inflation has surged by more than 7% in March compared to the same period last year. This marks the first estimate of the conflict’s broader impact on agriculture since its onset, with the firm noting that the situation threatens to deepen the “cost of farming squeeze.” The National Farmers Union reports that farmers are unable to cover these extra expenses, suggesting that food prices will inevitably climb as a result.
Ali highlighted that her fertilizer costs have climbed 40%, red diesel prices for tractors have jumped 100%, and transport expenses have increased by roughly 20%.
Global supply chains have been disrupted, with a third of the world’s fertilizer typically transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, now effectively closed due to the conflict. This has triggered a sharp rise in fertilizer costs. Red diesel, a fuel critical for farm equipment and heating, has also risen steeply, influenced by the soaring price of Brent crude, the international oil benchmark. These combined pressures are pushing food production expenses higher.
Ben Savidge, a potato farmer, mentioned that red diesel prices have climbed from 65-70p to 96-105p per litre, adding £5 per tonne to planting costs. “Last year’s dry summer devastated yields, and now with energy prices climbing so fast, it feels like one issue after another,” he observed.
Patrick Crehan, who oversees fuel purchases for a 3,500-member farming group, noted that prices rose from 70p to 130p per litre just before the ceasefire. “There are instances where farmers are questioning whether they’ll profit at all from this season,” he explained.
Despite some stabilization in fuel prices since the ceasefire, the long-term impact remains severe. Patrick emphasized that while most farmers continue planting, the financial strain has reached a critical point. His organization, AF Group, purchases around 120 million litres of fuel yearly, highlighting the sector’s reliance on affordable energy and the significant challenges ahead.
