Russian Casualties Exceed 1.2 Million in Ukraine War, Report Reveals
CSIS Report Challenges Notions of Inevitable Russian Victory
A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) states that approximately 1.2 million Russian troops have been killed, wounded, or are missing since the invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. This casualty rate, according to the study, represents the highest for a major military power since World War II.
The report highlights that Russia’s territorial advances have been minimal, with control over Ukrainian land increasing by only 12% since 2022. This raises questions about the effectiveness of the Russian military campaign, despite its initial ambitions.
“Russia has the upper hand,” US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Politico last month. “They’re much bigger. They’re much stronger… At some point, size will win,” Trump said.
Contrary to such assertions, the CSIS analysis suggests Ukraine maintains a significant defensive advantage. Kyiv’s “defense-in-depth” strategy—employing trenches, anti-tank obstacles, mines, and other barriers alongside drones and artillery—has hindered Russia’s progress on the battlefield.
Battlefield casualties favor Ukraine by a 2.5- or 2-to-1 ratio, according to the report. While Russia reports 1.2 million casualties, Ukraine’s toll is estimated at 500,000 to 600,000 killed, wounded, and missing. Russian losses, ranging from 275,000 to 325,000, are notably lower than Ukraine’s.
“Russian military losses, of those killed and wounded, now exceed sustainable recruitment and replacement rates,” James Ford, Britain’s deputy ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, stated in a speech last week.
The report underscores that Russia’s losses in Ukraine surpass those from all Russian and Soviet conflicts since World War II combined. For instance, the US lost around 57,000 troops in the Korean War and 47,000 during the Vietnam War. Russia’s casualties in Ukraine, however, are five times higher than these totals.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte noted earlier this month that Moscow lost 1,000 troops daily in December. “Not seriously wounded, dead,” he said. “In the 1980s in Afghanistan, the Soviets lost 20,000 in 10 years. Now they lose 30,000 in one month,” Rutte added.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has seen limited gains despite the hundreds of thousands of deaths since the invasion began in February 2022. In the past two years, territorial advances in some areas have amounted to mere yards per day, well below half a football field in a single day.
